FORECASTING THE NUMBER OF HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS IN SAM KHOK DISTRICT, PATHUM THANI PROVINCE
Keywords:
Hypertension, Forecasting, Number of patients, Sam Khok District, Grey system theory, Box-Jenkins methodAbstract
This study aimed to forecast the number of hypertensive patients in Sam Khok district, Pathum Thani province. It was the predictive research using time series methods. The data on the number of hypertensive patients in Sam Khok district, Pathum Thani province between fiscal years 2013 and 2024, collected from the reporting system of the Ministry of Public Health. Data were analyzed using the models in polynomial regression, the Grey system theory, and Box-Jenkins method.
The results showed that when using the number of hypertensive patients in Sam Khok District, Pathum Thani Province, fiscal years 2013 to 2023, all models had a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) less than 10, which can be used to predict with high accuracy. The GM(1,1)EPC model had the lowest MAPE value of 2.55 and the highest coefficient of determination of 99.21, which had the highest accuracy during the model development period. However, the number of patients in the fiscal year 2024, which was compiled on September 15, 2024, was 9,307. If the data is still being reported into the system, it is estimated that they were approximately 4.10 percent of patients that will be entered into the system until September 30, 2024. The ARIMA (0, 1, 0) with drift model forecasted the number of hypertensive patients in Sam Khok District in fiscal year 2024 will be 9,673 cases, an increase from the fiscal year 2023 of 3.93 percent, which was the appropriate forecast value and will be used in public health administration regarding the prevalence of hypertension.
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