Association of Rainfall, Temperature, and Ambient Particulate Matter (PM2.5 and PM10) with Pneumonia Cases in Phetchabun Province
Keywords:
Reinfall, Ambient particulate matter, Pneumonia, Time-Series, TemperatureAbstract
Pneumonia remains a major global public health concern and a leading cause of morbidity and mortality across all age groups, particularly in settings affected by climatic variability and air pollution. Strengthening empirical evidence to support surveillance and early warning systems is therefore essential.
Objective: To examine the association between meteorological factors (rainfall and temperature) and ambient air pollutants (PM2.5 and PM10) with pneumonia cases in Phetchabun Province.
Methods: A retrospective observational time-series study. Secondary daily data from 1 January to 30 September 2025 were compiled, including pneumonia cases (ICD-10: J12–J18) from the Bureau of Epidemiology, Temperature data (minimum, maximum) from Phetchabun Meteorological Station, and air-quality indicators from the Pollution Control Department. Descriptive statistics and negative binomial regression were used to assess associations and lag effects.
Results: The average number of pneumonia cases was 12.70 per day. Minimum daily temperature showed a statistically significant negative association with pneumonia incidence (p = .012), where each 1-degree Celsius increase corresponded to a 5.1% reduction in daily cases (IRR = 0.949). Lag-structure analysis indicated that the 3-day lag of minimum temperature (Lag 3) provided the best model fit. PM2.5 showed no statistically significant association with pneumonia, whereas PM10 exhibited a positive but non-significant relationship (p = .08).
Conclusions: Lower minimum temperatures were identified as a key risk factor associated with increased pneumonia incidence in Phetchabun, with the strongest effect observed three days later. These findings offer important baseline evidence for developing climate-informed surveillance and early-warning systems to reduce the disease burden in the region.
Downloads
References
Kyu HH, Vongpradith A, Sirota SB, Novotney A, Troeger CE, Doxey MC, et al. Age–sex differences in the global burden of lower respiratory infections and risk factors, 1990–2019: results from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Lancet Infect Dis. 2022; 22(11): 1626–47. doi: 10.1016/S1473-3099(22)00510-2
Every Breath Counts. The Every Breath Counts Coalition [Internet]. 2025 [cited 2025 Feb 5]. Available from: https://stoppneumonia.org/?utm_source=chatgpt.com
กองระบาดวิทยา กรมควบคุมโรค. คาดการณ์โรค ปี 2565: 8 โรคสำคัญ [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. 2564 [อ้างเมื่อ 5 กุมภาพันธ์ 2568]. จาก: https://www.ddc.moph.go.th/uploads/publish/1305720220831091702.pdf
โรงพยาบาลเพชรบูรณ์. รายงานการเฝ้าระวังโรค เดือน พฤศจิกายน พ.ศ.2567 คปสอ.เมืองเพชรบูรณ์ [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. 2567 [อ้างเมื่อ 7 กุมภาพันธ์ 2568]. จาก: https://pbh.moph.go.th/api4200/service/picture/picture_service/202412202122567.pdf
Morris DH, Yinda KC, Gamble A, Rossine FW, Huang Q, Bushmaker T, et al. Mechanistic theory predicts the effects of temperature and humidity on inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 and other enveloped viruses. eLife. 2021; 10: e65902. doi: 10.7554/eLife.65902
He Q, Liu Y, Yin P, Gao Y, Kan H, Zhou M, et al. Differentiating the impacts of ambient temperature on pneumonia mortality of various infectious causes: a nationwide, individual-level, case-crossover study. eBioMedicine. 2023; 98: 104854 doi: 10.1016/j.ebiom.2023.104854
Walsh JE, Ballinger TJ, Euskirchen ES, Hanna E, Mård J, Overland JE, et al. Extreme weather and climate events in northern areas: A review. Earth Sci Rev. 2020; 209: 103324. doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2020.103324
Brenner T, Link AC, Reudenbach C, Pott H, Rupp J, Witzenrath M, Rohde G, Pletz M, Bertrams W, Schmeck B. Effects of regional meteorological and air conditions on community-acquired pneumonia: Examining the interaction of individual, meteorological, and air characteristics. Working Papers on Innovation and Space No. 01.22. Marburg: Philipps-University Marburg, Department of Geography; 2022. Available from: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/270416/1/1799523365.pdf
Zhang W, Ruan Y, Ling J, Wang L. A study of the correlation between meteorological factors and hospitalization for acute lower respiratory infections in children. BMC Public Health. 2024; 24(1): 3135. doi: 10.1186/s12889-024-20619-1
Cheng FJ, Lee KH, Lee CW, Hsu PC. Association between particulate matter air pollution and hospital emergency room visits for pneumonia with septicemia: A retrospective analysis. Aerosol Air Qual Res. 2019; 19(2): 345–54. doi: 10.4209/aaqr.2018.08.0285
Bran SH, Macatangay R, Chotamonsak C, Chantara S, Surapipith V. Understanding the seasonal dynamics of surface PM2.5 mass distribution and source contributions over Thailand. Atmos Environ. 2024; 331: 120613. doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2024.120613
Suriyawong P, Chuetor S, Samae H, Piriyakarnsakul S, Amin M, Furuuchi M, et al. Airborne particulate matter from biomass burning in Thailand: Recent issues, challenges, and options. Heliyon. 2023; 9(3): e14261. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e14261
Liboschik T, Fokianos K, Fried R. tscount: An R package for analysis of count time series following generalized linear models. J Stat Softw. 2017; 82:1–51. doi: 10.18637/jss.v082.i05
Xu Z, Hu W, Tong S. Temperature variability and childhood pneumonia: an ecological study. Environ Health. 2014; 13(1):51. doi: 10.1186/1476-069x-13-51
Tian Y, Liu H, Wu Y, Si Y, Li M, Wu Y, et al. Ambient particulate matter pollution and adult hospital admissions for pneumonia in urban China: a national time series analysis for 2014–2017. PLoS Med. 2019; 16(12): e1003010. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003010
Ruchiraset A, Tantrakarnapa K. Time series modeling of pneumonia admissions and its association with air pollution and climate variables in Chiang Mai Province, Thailand. Environ Sci Pollut Res. 2018; 25(33): 33277–85. doi: 10.1007/s11356-018-3284-4
กองระบาดวิทยา กรมควบคุมโรค กระทรวงสาธารณสุข. รายงานสถานการณ์โรคปอดอักเสบ ประเทศไทย พ.ศ. 2568 [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. 2568 [อ้างเมื่อ 10 ตุลาคม 2568]. จาก: https://ddsdoe.ddc.moph.go.th/ddss/
ศูนย์อุตุนิยมวิทยาภาคเหนือ กรมอุตุนิยมวิทยา. ข้อมูลอุณหภูมิสูงสุด-ต่ำสุด และปริมาณฝนรายวัน. [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. 2568 [อ้างเมื่อ 10 ตุลาคม 2568]. จาก: https://cmmet.tmd.go.th/forecast/pt/Max_Min_Rainfall.html
กรมควบคุมมลพิษ. ข้อมูลคุณภาพอากาศย้อนหลัง PM2.5/PM10 รายวัน พ.ศ. 2554–2568 [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. 2568 [อ้างเมื่อ 5 กุมภาพันธ์ 2568]. จาก: http://www.air4thai.com/webV3/#/History
มหาวิทยาลัยมหิดล. ประกาศแนวปฏิบัติสำหรับโครงการวิจัยที่ไม่เข้าข่ายการวิจัยในคน [อินเทอร์เน็ต]. กรุงเทพฯ; 2565 [อ้างเมื่อ 25 พฤศจิกายน 2567]. จาก: https://sp.mahidol.ac.th/th/LAW/policy/2565-MU-Non-Human.pdf
Roback P, Legler J. Beyond multiple linear regression: applied generalized linear models and multilevel models in R. 1st ed. Boca Raton (FL): Chapman and Hall/CRC; 2021. doi: 10.1201/9780429066665
Gallucci M. GAMLj: general analyses for linear models [Internet]. 2019 [cited 2025 Oct 2]. Available from: https://gamlj.github.io/
Liu Y, Guo Y, Wang C, Li W, Lu J, Shen S, et al. Association between temperature change and outpatient visits for respiratory tract infections among children in Guangzhou, China. Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2015; 12(1): 439–54. doi: 10.3390/ijerph120100439
Koutsostathis E, Psaroulaki A, Chochlakis D, Malesios C, Demiris N, Kalogeropoulos K, et al. Association between Legionnaires’ disease incidence and meteorological data by region and time on the Island of Crete, Greece. Water. 2025; 17(15) :2344. doi: 10.3390/w17152344
D’Amato M, Molino A, Calabrese G, Cecchi L, Annesi-Maesano I, D’Amato G. The impact of cold on the respiratory tract and its consequences to respiratory health. Clin Transl Allergy. 2018; 8(1): 20. doi: 10.1186/s13601-018-0208-9
Yazdi MD, Wei Y, Di Q, Requia WJ, Shi L, Sabath MB, et al. The effect of long-term exposure to air pollution and seasonal temperature on hospital admissions with cardiovascular and respiratory disease in the United States: A difference-in-differences analysis. Sci Total Environ. 2022; 843: 156855. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.156855
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Community Health Development Quarterly Khon Kaen University
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Articles in this journal are copyrighted by the x may be read and used for academic purposes, such as teaching, research, or citation, with proper credit given to the author and the journal.use or modification of the articles is prohibited without permission.
statements expressed in the articles are solely the opinions of the authors.
authors are fully responsible for the content and accuracy of their articles.
other reuse or republication requires permission from the journal."
