Forecasting of Outpatient Thai Traditional Medicine Diagnostic Services in the Public Healthcare System
Keywords:
Forecasting, Grey System Theory, GM(1,1) model, Thai Traditional Medicine service, OutpatientAbstract
This research aimed to forecast the number of outpatient Thai Traditional Medicine diagnostic services in the public healthcare system using the GM(1,1) model under Grey System Theory. Secondary data were obtained from the Health Data Center (HDC) of the Ministry of Public Health, comprising quarterly data from fiscal year 2022 to 2026 (16 quarters). Due to high volatility in fiscal year 2022 data (ranging from 1.50 to 4.08 times higher than fiscal year 2023), these data were excluded from model construction. The remaining 14 quarters (fiscal year 2023–2025) were used for model building, with forecasts made for the next 4 quarters of fiscal year 2026 across 4 forecasting rounds. The results revealed that the GM(1,1) model demonstrated high accuracy, with Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) values of 5.74%, 5.58%, 6.32%, and 5.87% for rounds 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively (all below 10%). The forecasted values for the third and fourth quarters of fiscal year 2026 were 5,890,999 and 6,006,151 visits, respectively. In conclusion, the GM(1,1) model is an effective and appropriate tool for forecasting Thai Traditional Medicine services when limited data are available. The forecast results can be used to support resource management and budget planning in the public healthcare system.
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