Epidemiological Situation of Road Traffic Injuries (RTIs), Associated factors, and Forecasting of RTIs in Khon Kaen Province, Thailand, 2019–2025
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.59096/wesr.v56i11.3802Keywords:
road traffic injury, Khon Kaen, Forecast, epidemiology, risk factor, deathAbstract
Introduction: Road traffic injuries (RTIs) are a major cause of death globally and in Thailand, particularly in large urban areas such as Khon Kaen Province. This study aims to describe the epidemiological characteristics, identify factors associated with mortality, and forecast the number of cases from RTIs in Khon Kaen Province.
Method: A cross-sectional study was conducted using road traffic injury surveillance data from the Thai Government Open Data Center, during 2019–2023. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze epidemiological characteristics of the cases. Multiple logistic regression was applied to examine factors related to road traffic mortality. Weekly forecasts of the cases suffered from RTIs during 2024–2025 were conducted, using time series analysis.
Results: During 2019-2023, there were 111,984 RTI cases (including fatalities) in Khon Kaen Province, with 293 deaths reported. The ratio of females to males was 1:1.6, and the median age was 33.6 years. Event hours between 00:00–05:59 AM, non-urban areas, and vehicle type as cars, were significantly associated with road traffic fatalities. Seatbelt and helmet use were found to be protective factors, despite no statistical significance. Holt-Winters exponential smoothing (HWS) had a lower prediction error, with a mean absolute error (MAE) of 120.05 cases and a mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 29.29%, outperforming the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model. The HWS forecast indicated an upward trend, with an estimated average of 561.32 injuries per week in 2024–2025, peaking in the fourth week of December 2025.
Conclusion and Recommendation: Government agencies responsible for caring for RTIs should utilize population data to support decision-making in resource allocation and public awareness campaigns. Preventive measures to reduce fatalities from road accidents, such as promoting the use of seat belts and helmets, continue to be critical strategies.
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