Dengue hemorrhagic Fever: A Forecast Report in 9th service network area for 2013

Abstract

This study aimed to forecast risk and prevalence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever for 2013 in the 9th service network area. Data were reviewed and collected from epidemiological studies and surveillance reports of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever, and literatures related to the disease vectors. Descriptive statistical analysis was performed to determine the disease distribution according to time, place, person, rainfall distribution, larva index and host infection rates by provinces. One-way ANOVA and simple linear regression were performed to examine relationship between number of cases and average monthly and annual rainfall. Incidence of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever was forecast using Time Series Model (Holt-Winters multiplicative method).
The study found that amount of larva index was associated with Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever. Using simple regression correlation statistics (simple linear regression) between number of patients with monthly rainfall, rate of patients, with annual rainfall ranging from 2003-2012, showed little correlation. However, the Time Series Model was fitted using monthly data from 2003–2012 and estimated that there would be a total of 31,724 Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever cases in 2013 under corresponding risk factors and median of the disease. Regarding awareness and participation of the people participated in the survey, it was found that majority of people ignored the disease control and prevention measures.
In conclusion, Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever was a major public health problem in the 9^th service network area. A forecast for cases reported of Dengue Hemorrhagic Fever would be the highest in ten years.